Top 10 Emerging Technologies

 Because health is on everyone’s mind, this year’s Top 10 salutes the rise of breath sensors that can detect ­COVID-19 and other diseases,as well as wireless biomarker monitors that make it easier to diagnose and manage chron­ic illnesses. New results from the field of genom­ ics could allow us to engineer longer “health­ spans,” and on-demand drug manufacturing will result in tailored medicines while helping to solve today’s supply challenges with large-scale production.To keep track of it all, the number of devices that make up the Internet of Things is rapidly growing. They will become more globally con­nected through the use of orbiting nanosatel­ lites and be powered by energy harvested from wireless signals. The future has never looked so interconnected. 

More than a century after t  he first scientist argued that car­ bon dioxide could trap heat in the atmosphere and decades after “climate change” entered the vernacular, countries and industries have been making new commitments to cut their carbon footprints. In 2021 the U.S., the second-largest

source of national carbon emissions, committed to halve its output relative to 2005 levels by 2030. The U.K. announced its own aggressive goal of a 68 percent reduction compared with 1990 levels by that date. The European Union Parlia­ ment recently passed a law requiring carbon-emissions reductions by at least 55 percent by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. Although industries such as oil and aviation are

more resistant to change, the rate at which companies are joining the Science-Based Targets initiative, which helps them reduce their emissions to stay in line with the Paris agreement, has doubled since 2015. General Motors, Volk­swagen and other major auto manufacturers have set ambi­tious targets for decarbonization in the past year.This acceleration of commitments—along with its asso­ciated hallenges—is a clear indicator of decarbonization’ semergence worldwide. It will force a diverse suite of tech­ nologies to “emerge”—that is, to demonstrate the ability to operate at scale in the next three to five years. To make this a reality, solutions that have already been identified must mature and scale at greater speed. Existing technology gaps will require sustained innovation. We expect several broad areas to see significant focus and growth. Today 2 percent or less of global private and commercial roadway transportation fleets produce zero emissions,despite Tesla’s highly visible initial success in driving con­sumer interest. eanwhile bulk shipping, both rail and sea­ borne, has devised low-­carbon solutions. Yet many of them,such as the Coradia iLint, a passenger train powered by hydrogen fuel cells and manufactured by Alstom, have yet to be applied at scale. The barriers are not just technological but also political, given that such ransformational programs require significant capital investment. In the U.S., an estimated 13 percent of total carbon emissions come from fuel used for heating and cooking in residential and commercial buildings. Reducing that num­ ber in America and elsewhere will demand net-zero-emis­ sion HVAC (heating, ventilation and air-conditioning), andpassive solar environmental systems must become com­monplace. It will also be important to switch to natural and novel building materials such as renewable timbers and low-­carbon-footprint cement.As renewable energy sources become abundant, we will need to employ them to decarbonize pervasive sources of greenhouse gases. One example is “green” hydrogen.When produced without using carbon-based fuels, hydrogen can become a nonpolluting fuel while also serving the chem­ical industry as a basic ingredient with no carbon footprint.Similarly, if data centers, which often require megawatts of electricity, are co-located with the same renewable energy sources, their carbon footprint is dramatically reduced.

Meeting the power–generation goals set by nations and industries requires a radical expansion of photovoltaic, wind,hydroelectric, tidal, nuclear and other zero-emission tech.Some critical hurdles remain: Reliable, efficient and afford­ able energy storage at the industrial scale is nascent. Carbon-free, fission-based nuclear energy (including disposal of its waste products) that is both safe and affordable is also still aspirational. To lessen the pollution from existing fossil-fuel power generation, we will also need to bring on far more technologies that capture, reuse and sequester carbon.In the agriculture sector, protein substitutes such as the Impossible Burger and Beyond Meat will need to take over a much greater share of the market to mitigate the massive levels of carbon and methane produced in raising livestock. Data from sensors connected via the Internet of Things will increas­ ingly enable intelligent land and crop management as well asfertilizer and water use, aiding in further carbon reductions.In addition to the myriad technological challenges to rapid decarbonization, nations must develop global governance methods to ensure energy equality. Emergent economies cannot face identical carbon-reduction targets that would stifle development. Nations will also need to thoughtfully allocate land to expand infrastructure for renewables. And to ensure compliance with global accords, governments will need global environmental monitoring infrastructure, similar to the protocols of the International Atomic Energy Agency.